The data used is from
who describes it
“For
the purpose of this study we used those individuals with CAG expansions of the
upper allele that were >28, comprising 728 affected and 321 asymptomatic
at-risk individuals from 473 families, whose age at onset or oldest age while
still asymptomatic could be ascertained.” “An accurate assessment of the age at
onset was performed through both a retrospective review of patient charts and
telephone interviews with patients, family members, genetic counsellors, and
physicians. Age at onset was defined as the first time at which a patient had
eitherneurological or psychiatric symptoms that represented a permanent change
from the normal state. The age used for analysis of all asymptomatic
individuals was the oldest age when his or her clinical status was last directly
confirmed, either at the genetics clinic in Vancouver or by the local,
attending physician. Particular attention was paid to confirmation of current
age and clinical status of all asymptomatic, at-risk individuals in the HD
database who were >65 years of age.” Microsoft Office Excel 2007 was used to
curve fit the median age as a function of the number of CAG repeats.
Results it is the CAG
expansion, not the gene
If we assume that HD and
its phenotype copy has the same pathology, it means that it is the expansion,
not the different neighbouring genes HTT and JPH3 that is responsible for the
pathology. This is particularly true if we insist that the two expansions are
the same as I do in the next section
Results rule for reading
frame assignment
I propose that for repeat
diseases with phenocopies that have shifted repeats, reading frame errors are
crucial and that the relevant reading frames are those that cause both repeats
to code for the most alike protein. For a three-base codon repeat sequence in which
the phenocopy has a single base substituted, the relevant reading frame is the
one in which the substitution occurs on the third codon base, the least
important one. Thus for the CAG and CTG expansions of HD and its phenocopy, the
reading frame is changed so that the codon base substitution occurs in the
third base instead of the second: instead of (CAG)n and (CTG)n it is (GCA)n and
(GCT)n. Both GCA and GCT code for the same amino acid – alanine. While a change
in reading frame is unlikely, I next suggest that the correlation of repeats
with HD age of onset may be the kinetic equation of the corresponding
biochemical reaction creating the toxin. Such a slow reaction arising from an
unlikely reading frame error may be at the heart of HD.
Results a clue from
reaction kinetics
I suggest that the
relationship between repeat length and age of onset can be reframed in terms of
chemical kinetics which can then give us information about chemical reaction
taking place. I calculate the speed of the reaction assuming that the onset of
the disease happens at a fixed critical concentration:
Speed of
reaction*age=critical concentration of toxin (Equation 1)
Next I need to convert
the length of the repeat into a concentration for the equation to be a kinetic
equation. One way is to assume that the rate limiting step is the reading frame
error resulting in a poly alanine molecule of length m. There are n-1-m
positions in which this reading frame error can occur (because of the shift
there are at most n-1 positions and in order to fit m alanines the number of
positions is limited to n-1-m), the probability of creating this molecule is
proportional to n-1 -m:
(N-1-m)*age=const or
n=1+m+const/age (Equation 2)
If I replot Figure 1 in Figure 2 with the y axis
as 1/age the curve fulfills equation 2 and I identify m=30.6:
I calculate the age of onset as a function of n and
find the following formula:
Age of onset = 505/ (n-31.6) (Equation 3)
This is an alternative to the exponential fit proposed
by Kaplan et al but, in the mind of this author, not borne out by their theory.
Figure
2:
The inverse of the (age of onset) versus the length of the repeat. The
intersection with the x-axis identifies the length of the poly-alanine to be
about 30.6 alanine units.

Figure
3:
Exponential fit and the fit from equation 3 compared. To distinguish the two
fits, and perhaps settle the kinetics, it may be necessary to probe the
extremes of repeats at less than 39 and more than 50.